OPEC warns of oil shortage risks without new investments

The global energy sector is not ready for a sharp withdrawal from oil and gas — this was once again emphasized by OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais during the Russian Energy Week in Moscow. According to him, despite the growing focus on renewable sources, oil will still account for around 30% of the world’s energy mix by 2050. The organization is urging producing countries not to delay investments in exploration and infrastructure to prevent future supply shortages and price shocks.

OPEC opposes a rushed exit from hydrocarbons

Al-Ghais noted that many forecasts about an “energy peak” are overly optimistic. In his view, the world is in a transition phase that will last for decades, and oil will continue to play a major role. He stressed that population growth, urbanization, and industrial expansion are driving energy demand — and renewable alternatives are not yet able to meet it.

He also warned that an attempt to “accelerate” the transition too quickly could lead to disruptions: if oil investments decline faster than clean energy grows, it will cause price volatility and resource shortages. Over the next 25 years, Al-Ghais believes the key challenge will be finding a balance between realism and environmental ambitions.

Market reaction

After the OPEC chief’s remarks, oil prices rose slightly, as traders viewed his comments as a sign of steady long-term demand. However, analysts remain cautious. They point out that although OPEC+ continues to expand production, independent producers — particularly in the United States and Latin America — are also ramping up exports.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that by 2026 the market could face an oversupply of about 3–4 million barrels per day. This suggests that excessive, poorly coordinated investments could also destabilize prices. But Al-Ghais insists the greater threat is not overproduction but underinvestment, which may lead to shortages in the medium term.

Experts also note that much of the world’s oil and gas infrastructure is aging. Without major modernization, it won’t be able to handle growing demand — which is why OPEC’s calls are seen less as industry protection and more as a warning about structural vulnerabilities.

What to watch in the near term

The global energy market remains volatile, and several key factors will determine its future trajectory:

• changes in OPEC+ production quotas and how member states respond — who cuts, who increases;
• investment in infrastructure, asset recovery, and exploration of new fields;
• stock fluctuations and consumption trends in Asia — especially China and India;
• adoption of green technologies by leading oil and gas companies;

Western regulatory measures — tariffs, taxation, and environmental standards.

These factors will reveal how seriously the industry takes OPEC’s call for “energy realism.” The organization’s statement is more than political rhetoric — it’s a strategic message to the market: do not wait until infrastructure is beyond repair. The world is gradually shifting toward clean energy, but oil and gas will remain part of the equation for years to come. The challenge for nations and corporations is to act now — not to abandon hydrocarbons too early, nor to invest in them too late. This is not only an economic issue, but a geopolitical one as well.